NBA Storylines: January’s strength of schedule rankings

It’s a new year and a new month. And with the 2023-24 season 39% complete, January will provide some teams with opportunities to climb the standings. Others will be tested as they try to navigate the next 31 days.

January strength of schedule

Here’s a breakdown of the January schedule for every team, sorted from the toughest (regarding cumulative opponent winning percentage) to the easiest:

             Team                                                    OppPCT                        B2B            H | R
 
1.          New Orleans                                        .582                                3                 6 | 9
2.          Indiana                                                 .570                                4                 9 | 8
3.          Boston                                                  .554                                4                 8 | 8
4.          Portland                                                .553                                3                 6 | 11
5.          Orlando                                                .537                                4                 6 | 10
6.          Dallas                                                   .529                                1                 11 | 5
7.          Brooklyn                                              .528                                1                 *8 | 5
8.          Denver                                                  .524                                1                 7 | 8
9.          Miami                                                   .520                                2                 9 | 7
10.        LA Clippers                                         .519                                2                 6 | 9
11.        Atlanta                                                  .514                                2                 10 | 5
12.        Utah                                                      .512                                4                 8 | 9
13.        Memphis                                              .511                                3                 7 | 8
14.        Phoenix                                                .510                                4                 7 | 9
15.        Toronto                                                .508                                2                 6 | 9
16.        Golden State                                        .502                                3                 10 | 4
17.        Houston                                                .502                                4                 9 | 8
18.        Detroit                                                  .500                                2                 9 | 6
19.        L.A. Lakers                                          .486                                1                 10 | 5
20.        Oklahoma City                                     .484                                5                 6 | 11
21.        Charlotte                                              .482                                3                 8 | 8
22.        Philadelphia                                         .471                                4                 7 | 7
23.        Milwaukee                                           .469                                3                 8 | 8
24.        Sacramento                                          .468                                2                 6 | 9
25.        Minnesota                                            .467                                3                 7 | 10
26.        New York                                             .458                                3                 10 | 6
27.        San Antonio                                         .456                                3                 8 | 8
28.        Washington                                          .455                                3                 8 | 7
29.        Cleveland                                             .443                                0                 *7 | 5
30.        Chicago                                                .402                                3                 5 | 10

OppPCT = Cumulative opponent winning percentage (as of Dec. 31)
B2B = Back-to-backs (includes the Suns’ Dec. 31-Jan. 1 back-to-back)
H | R = Home games | Road games
* The Nets’ and Cavs’ home and road counts don’t include their game in Paris on Jan. 11.

Note: A rest-advantage game (or rest-disadvantage game) is one where one team played the day/night before, but the other (the team with the advantage) did not. Teams are 78-43 (.645) in rest-advantage games thus far this season, 48-18 (.727) at home and 30-25 (.545) on the road, through Dec. 31.

Eastern Conference

• The Celtics are one of two teams — the Kings are the other — with a league-high five rest-advantage games in January. Those include a big game against the team with the league’s second-best record (Minnesota) on Jan. 10. That game and a visit from the Nuggets on Jan. 19 are the biggest threats to their perfect (16-0) home record.
• The Nets are just 2-7 against the Western Conference after their loss in Oklahoma City to close 2023, and they’ll play 11 of their 14 January games against the West, with another game against the Thunder on Friday.
• The Bulls have the league’s easiest January schedule by a wide margin regarding cumulative opponent winning percentage (.402). But it will be the most road-heavy January schedule, with only five of their 15 games at the United Center.
• The Cavs have just 13 games, in part because they’ll play the Nets in Paris on Jan. 11 (a “home” game for Cleveland). They’re the only team without a back-to-back this month.
• The Pacers rank 28th defensively and will have 10 January games (most in the league) against teams that currently rank in the top 10 offensively. Their first seven games of 2024 include two games each against the Bucks (second), Hawks (fifth) and Celtics (third), and they’ll face Boston again to close the month.
• The Knicks have the league’s second-biggest differential between their record vs. the 14 teams that are currently at or below .500 (12-1) and their record vs. the 16 teams that are currently above .500 (5-14). They play the Wolves and Sixers this week, but only six of their 16 January games are against that latter group. RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley make their return to Madison Square Garden with the Raptors on Jan. 20.

Western Conference

• The Mavs are one of six teams with a better record on the road (11-7) than they have at home (8-7). They lead the league with 11 home games in January, with their longest homestand of the season (seven games from Jan. 3-15) including two games each against the Blazers and Pelicans, as well as a Jan. 7 visit from the first-place Wolves.
• The Warriors have the league’s most home-heavy January schedule, with 10 of their 14 games at Chase Center. They have five games remaining on a seven-game homestand and close the month with a five-game homestand. In between is a four-game trip that includes a rest-disadvantage game in Milwaukee.
• The Lakers will play 11 of their first 12 January games in L.A., a stretch that includes two meetings (one “home” game, one “road” game) against the Clippers. They’ll have a rest advantage for their only true road game in that stretch (Jan. 13 in Utah).
• Through December, the Wolves have the league’s biggest discrepancy between their number of rest-advantage games (8-1) and rest-disadvantage games (0-1). They will have a positive differential (four advantage games, three disadvantage games) in January, with a rest advantage in a big game in Oklahoma City on Jan. 29. They’ll be at a disadvantage when they end a four-game trip in Boston on the 10th.
• The Pelicans not only have the league’s toughest January schedule regarding cumulative opponent winning percentage (.582). They’re also the only team without a rest-advantage game this month.
• The Thunder have two stretches of five games in seven days this season, and they’re both in January. The first (Jan. 10-16) will take them from Miami to L.A., while the second is a little easier regarding travel and the opponents (it includes games against the Blazers, Spurs and Pistons).
• The Suns need to make up some ground if they’re going to finish in the top six in the West, and they’ll need to do it against a relatively tough January schedule, with 10 of their 16 games against teams that enter 2024 with winning records. Even with their win over the Magic on Sunday, they’re just 3-7 against that group thus far.
• The Spurs are one of three teams — the Hornets and Pistons are the others — without a win against the opposite conference, dropping to 0-9 against the East with their loss to the Celtics on Sunday. They’ll play 12 of their 16 January games against the East, including a stretch of 10 straight after they visit Memphis on Tuesday.

By: John Schuhmann