Global Natural Catastrophe Insured Losses Exceed $102B; Likely to Surpass 2023 Levels – Aon Report

Aon plc (NYSE: AON), a leading global professional services firm, launched its Q3 Global Catastrophe Recap – October 2024  report, which aggregates and analyzes global natural catastrophe data during the first nine months of the year.

The report reveals that there were at least 280 notable global natural disaster events in the Q1-Q3 period, resulting in economic losses of at least $258B and insurance losses of $102B. Losses from Hurricane Milton and additional events expected in the rest of the calendar year, however, will likely result in total annual insured losses above those seen in 2023 ($125B). Economic losses for the period were significantly lower than losses during the 2023 period ($351B).

These dynamics resulted in a protection gap of 60 percent, one of the lowest on record, mainly due to the higher contribution of insured losses in the United States, where insurance penetration is relatively high compared to other countries.

The total number of fatalities from natural disasters to the end of Q3 was estimated at around 13,000 – the lowest since 1986.

Global economic and insured losses (Q1-Q3 2024)

The report highlights that insured losses from primary perils during the first nine months of 2024 were relatively low, with no event exhibiting the potential to significantly impact the broader reinsurance market. Most of the losses, including those from severe convective storms (SCS) as the costliest peril overall, continued to be retained by insurers, prolonging the period of exceptional returns for reinsurers.

Third-quarter insured losses were driven by three costly Atlantic hurricanes, SCS outbreaks in the United States and Canada, as well as flooding in Central Europe.

The report also reveals that Canada is enduring its costliest insurance loss year on record, with the majority of the impact occurring as a result of four events within one month in Q3, with expected payouts exceeding $5.9B. Elsewhere, Typhoon Yagi – the deadliest event of the year and costliest event on record in Vietnam – became the overall third costliest event in the period under review.

Michal Lorinc, head of catastrophe insight at Aon, said: “Our latest study highlights the complexity of natural catastrophe risk management for organisations, necessitating a myriad of resources around physical measures, warning systems, forecasts, and public awareness. The insurance industry has again played a significant role in this process, with re/insurance covering a high proportion of the global losses so far this year relative to previous periods.”

Aon estimates that global reinsurer capital neared $700B as of June 30^th; this figure is forecasted to grow into 2025, provided no substantial catastrophic events will reverse this trend.

To read the full Q3 Global Catastrophe Recap – October 2024 report, please visit: https://assets.aon.com/-/media/files/aon/reports/2024/aon-q3-2024-global-catastrophe-recap.pdf 

For more information about Aon’s Reinsurance Solutions, please visit:  https://www.aon.com/home/solutions/reinsurance.html

Notes

All figures in USD unless otherwise stated.

About Aon

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